As the global tide shifts away from fossil fuels, a new energy landscape is emerging, with Nigeria, Algeria, and Egypt emerging as the vanguards of the African natural gas market. The world’s growing aversion to traditional energy sources is reshaping the dynamics, and projections from the African Energy Chamber Report highlight a robust surge in African natural gas supplies.
This upward trajectory is forecast to propel supplies from a projected 25.5 billion Bcf/d in 2023 to an impressive 41.6 Bcf/d by 2035. In a captivating twist, the years from 2023 to 2027 are poised to witness the trio of Nigeria, Algeria, and Egypt commanding the African natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply arena, mirroring the global trend of shunning fossil fuels. The August 2023 State of African Energy report by the African Energy Chamber underpins this forecast, indicating a 1% increase in Africa’s natural gas supply to reach 25.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023.
Even as Africa undergoes an energy transformation, the continent’s long-term supply potential is projected to burgeon by 7% to 27.4 Bcf/d by 2025. This growth is expected to skyrocket nearly 30% to 32.8 Bcf/d by 2025 and an astonishing 65% to 41.6 Bcf/d by 2035, adhering to the worldwide energy trajectory.
The report’s narrative is clear: “Algeria, Egypt, and Nigeria are expected to drive the majority of the natural gas supply with an average of 80% of the total African gas coming from these three countries. Individually, the short-term output of these three countries is estimated to stay relatively flat.”
Delving deeper, Algeria is projected to escalate from 10 Bcf/d in 2023 to 11 Bcf/d by 2027. Egypt’s trajectory holds steady at 6.25 Bcf/d, while Nigeria anticipates marginal fluctuations ranging from 4.5 Bcf/d to 5.5 Bcf/d.
While the spotlight is firmly on these dominant players, the report also recognizes the potential of other African nations in the natural gas domain. However, their contributions are expected to manifest on a longer timeline. The report sheds light on “mega natural gas projects offshore Senegal – Mauritania, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Ethiopia,” which are poised to make their impact felt later.
Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, Mauritania, Cameroon, and Congo will continue to enrich the LNG market through their respective LNG projects. The colossal strides made by Nigeria and Algeria’s LNG initiatives under their national oil companies (NNPC and Sonatrach) further emphasize Africa’s energy evolution.
Future promise and growth are fueled by monumental projects in nations like Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, and Mauritania-Senegal. The study underscores Africa’s commitment to harnessing its natural gas discoveries, positioning gas as a transitional fuel, and curbing emissions arising from rampant gas flaring.
While Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas” initiative, initiated in March 2021, charts an ambitious course, the report notes its gradual implementation pace. Amid these shifts, Africa’s natural gas giants are forging ahead, poised to play pivotal roles in the continent’s energy metamorphosis.
